Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 22 2024

Corrected Caribbean Sea forecast

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of the southeastern United States, north of 30N between 70W and 76W, in the wake of a reinforcing cold front that will quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas today through Sat night. The strongest winds will occur north of 30N today and tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds, with seas of 12 to 15 ft expected north of 28N between 77W and 60W. Long-period N swell with this front will produce rough seas for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift eastward through this weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will continue into next week for areas east of 65W.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends westward to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 20W and 32W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 12N between 43W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf from 27N82W to 25N89W to 28N96W. Fresh NW to N winds are occurring behind this front and across much of the Gulf E of 90W, with locally strong winds occurring in the far northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are occurring elsewhere. Moderate seas are observed across the majority of the Gulf, while the NW Gulf is seeing slight seas.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from near Sarasota, Florida to 26N88W and to near central Texas will shift east- southeastward of the basin this afternoon. Fresh northwest to north winds are behind the front over the NE Gulf. These winds will change little through tonight, then diminish to gentle speeds Sat. Residual north swell producing seas of 8 ft over the far southeastern Gulf and in the the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters will subside to below 8 ft this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Gulf will shift eastward through the weekend, with winds elsewhere across the basin diminishing to light to gentle speeds. The high pressure will be centered over the NE Gulf early next week, with moderate to fresh southerly winds developing over the western Gulf starting late Sat and through Tue night. A weak cold front may move into the far western Gulf early next week and stall.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba southwestward to near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Widely scattered convection is noted in the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of both the front and the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough, generally south of 13N. Another area of scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 18N between 67W and 73W in association with a developing surface trough. Recent scatterometer satellite data show widespread fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and moderate seas occurring behind the stationary front, impacting most of the northwestern Caribbean west of 80W. A weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the basin, where light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to near the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica will weaken and dissipate during the weekend. Fresh to locally strong N winds are behind the front with seas to 8 ft. These conditions will gradually diminish through Sun. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean and high pressure building over the southeastern United States will promote fresh NE winds in the Atlantic Passages and in the lee of Cuba on Sat, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas in E swell will develop across much of the basin Sun through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for parts of the SW N Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front has been analyzed from 31N65W to 27N71W to 22N75W. The front then becomes stationary from 22N75W into eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are occurring along and ahead of this front, generally north of 27N. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front is moving into the region and is located from 31N78W to 28N80W. Recent scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force NW winds and rough seas occurring behind this front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is analyzed over the northern Lesser Antilles from 16N62W to 24N58W; isolated showers are observed near this trough. Another trough, located from 23N44W to 30N32W trailing a cold front, is leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and to the east of the trough. NW swell behind this trough is supporting seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 28N between 40W and 55W. Otherwise, ridging dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N66W to 26N72W and to 23N74W, where it transitions to a stationary front to eastern Cuba. A reinforcing cold front extends from near 31N73W to near Vero Beach, Florida. This front will reach from near 31N72W to SE Florida by early this afternoon. Gale force west to northwest winds are expected behind this front beginning this afternoon N of 30N between the front and 77W. Fresh to strong winds are expected elsewhere on either side of the front N of 26N. The front will merge into the first front from near 31N64W to 26N69W and to near the Windward Passage by late tonight, at which time the gale conditions are expected to diminish. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected with the gale winds, and seas of 8 to 12 ft elsewhere N and NE of the Bahamas through late tonight. Long-period N swell with this front will produce rough seas for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift eastward through this weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will continue into next week for areas east of 65W.

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