Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Feb 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf late tonight, then sweep across the basin through Thu night. Near- gale force N winds with frequent gusts to gale-force will follow the front across the northwestern Gulf on Wed. Gale-force N winds will develop off Tampico, Mexico Wed and Wed night, and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night through Thu night. These winds will produce very rough to high seas, peaking at 16 to 18 ft under the strongest winds. Both winds and seas will diminish during the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas of 12 to 15 ft across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic, north of 13N between the W African coast and and 35W. This swell will subside gradually tonight and Wednesday. Then, a new set of large reinforcing NW swell will bring another round of 12 to 18 ft seas north of 20N between 25W and 55W, then subside to 12 to 15 ft as the swell moves east of 35W Fri.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs southwestward to 01N17W. An ITCZ continues from 01N17W across 01S30W to near Belem, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm north and 200 nm south of both features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

The dissipating end of a stationary front reaches southwestward from the northwest Bahamas across the Straits of Florida to just north of the Yucatan Channel. Patchy showers are seen up to 40 nm along either side of this boundary. Convergent SE winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the north-central Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh southeasterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the south-central and western Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail across the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, a strong arctic cold front is forecast to reach the Texas coast tonight, move into the northwestern Gulf early Wed, and sweep across the rest of the basin through Thu night. Besides gale winds mentioned in the Special Features section, a large area of fresh to strong northerly winds and very rough seas will follow behind the cold front. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf during the weekend. A trough will likely develop from the frontal remnants over the southwestern Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected through the period, becoming more confined to the waters north of 22N and west of 90W Fri through Sat night. Conditions improve Sun and Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the north- central, eastern and southwestern basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail at the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas will continue over most sections of the central and eastern basin through early Sun before diminishing some through the remainder of the period. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas are expected offshore of Colombia into the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through Thu night, then return Sat night through Sun night. A weakening frontal boundary will approach the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri, reach the Windward Passage Fri night into Sat before dissipating Sat night. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front north of the area will lead to the development of fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night. Otherwise, rough seas in E swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri night, then subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Significant Swell.

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N56W to 27N68W, then continues as a stationary front to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are occurring up to 130 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough is producing scattered showers near eastern Cuba and Turks and Caicos Islands. A cold front curves southwestward from the northwestern Africa coast across 31N10W to 23N20W.

Moderate to locally fresh NW to SW winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft in large NW swell are seen near the cold front, north of 27N between 75W and 65W. To the west, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present north of 25N and west of 65W. A broad Atlantic Ridge stretching southwestward from a 1023 mb high at 28N35W to the Bahamas is supporting light to gentle winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate northerly swell from 20N to 25N/cold front between 35W and the Bahamas. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft in mixed large swells exist. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic basin west of 35W..

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front across the western Atlantic will become fully stationary and weaken from 29N55W to 27N64W early on Wed. Fresh SW winds ahead of the front north of 29N will diminish further tonight as the front continues to move eastward. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over the central and northeast Florida offshore waters Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast Wed afternoon. This front will reach from near 31N77W to Vero Beach, Florida Wed night, from near 31N63W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Thu night, from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Fri night and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 26N55W to 22N64W to the Windward Passage Sat night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind this second front north of about 27N through Fri. Strong high pressure will build Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant tight gradient will bring fresh to strong NE winds to the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank primarily south of 25N Fri night into Sat night. Conditions diminish Sun and Sun night as another cold front moves across the northwest part of the area.

$$

Chan