Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southward to 06N18W. The ITCZ is noted from 06N18W to 04N39W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 01N to 05N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep tropical moisture interacting with outflow boundaries from overnight convection over Texas is leading to scattered thunderstorms offshore the upper Texas coast. Broad subtropical ridging dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted south of 25N and west of 90W, with locally winds occurring off Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered just E of Florida and lower pressures in the western Gulf will support moderate to locally fresh winds over the majority of the Gulf of Mexico into late next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night into late next week near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf sections.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough extends from the western Atlantic SW into the central Caribbean. This trough is providing lift which combined with rich tropical moisture is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms E of 70W, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat to flooding to Puerto Rico. See local weather advisories for more information. Mariners should also be aware of the potential for strong wind gusts and locally rough seas in the area of showers and thunderstorms.

The rest of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the SE Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds and 2-4 ft are observed in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds in the NW Caribbean will continue through Mon night. Similar winds will occur nocturnally in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period. A surface trough that extends from the western Atlantic into the NE Caribbean continues to support numerous thunderstorms E of 70W.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic is under the influence of a weak subtropical ridge centered between Bermuda the SE US coast. A generally dry airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions west of 68W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found south of 27N and west of 65W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N49W to the Leeward Islands, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure system near the island of Madeira. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present south of a line from the westernmost of the Canary Islands to the Windward Islands. The strongest winds are occurring off Western Sahara. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift eastward through the weekend as a cold front drops southward over the eastern and central waters. The front will shift east of the area Sun night. High pressure will then settle over the area through Wed night.

Konari